Blondel's Prophecy and Iraq

Jean Blondel went into details in Political Parties – The Decline of Parties in Europe – about the perils of patronage in particracies. The exchange of favours and appointments in governmental bodies owing to party calculations and favour exchanges has proven ineffective and non-transparent, whether in majoritarian systems or those of a consensual nature. The mistakes committed by parties in continental Europe throughout the past century have been taken account of, with the hope that as party life develops and new organisational structures emerge, citizens can be spared the inefficiency of their elected governments.

What is being exported into the new member countries of the democratic club seems to miss out on these lessons. Theory trumps practicality and experience in the process of introducing democratic systems of governance in these countries. Iraq stands testimony to this very observation.

Iraq was ruled for very long years by an Arab-nationalist party that employed European-inspired rhetoric of socialism and nationalism. Parties of other ideological families also played a role in the political landscape – such as the Communist party, which have also been an offshoot of European parties established in the 1950s, or at least an offshoot of their intellectual school. When the USA liberated Iraq from years long of dictatorship in 2003, a new formula of party collaboration and political organisation was introduced.

Iraq was viewed as a nation of cleavages, and consequently, the system was organised in a similar fashion. It was agreed that the presidency was to be headed by a Kurdish leader, the Parliament by a Sunni leader, and the government by a Shiite leader. Parties were organised along the same cleavage lines, and so were the votes of the electorate. Most importantly, parties of the same ideological family – that of religious or ethnic affiliation – started to exchange favours under a patronage-supportive system.

Elections in Iraq in May 2018 envisaged drama. The prophecy was fulfilled. It took party factions and elected members over 4 months to select a prime minister. Lengthier time is expected when it comes to forming the government. The Blondel–feared party patronage prophecy took place. Parties started forming coalitions across cleavage-lines in hope of forming a majority and consequently form a government. Moqtada al-Sadr and Haider al-Abadi created an alliance that includes the blocs of Vice President Ayad Allawi and Shi’ite Muslim cleric Ammar al-Hakim, as well as several Sunni Muslim lawmakers and ones representing Turkmen, Yazidi, Mandaean and Christian minorities. A rival grouping led by militia commander Hadi al-Ameri and former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki formed another alliance. Bickering commenced, and so did implied favours and compromises on the hot files (Iran, Kurds, US relations to name a few).

In a surprising turn of events, Iraq’s new president tasked veteran Shiite politician Adel Abdul-Mahdi with forming a new government. Neutrality and independence will not facilitate the setting up of a government. Months after the country elected its new parliament the country is as divided and ungovernable as ever – and it is all attributed to a system that naively believed in consensual politics in an ethnically and religiously divided nation. The exchange of favours and the agreement of parties on their share of the pie will only entrench further factionalism and favouritism based on party affiliation, AKA in Iraq "religious affiliation". The new premier however astonished everyone by announcing that the public can apply for a ministerial post by sending an electronic application. He reportedly declined nominations by parties that were masked by independent slogans. Is that the end of patronage?

Whether this is a political stunt or an actual change in the modus operandi of Iraq politics remains to be seen. Blondel's prophecies might not find ground in the Iraqi government, or so one hopes.