Shame on me if you fool me twice

The Vienna nuclear negotiations between the six major countries and Iran have collapsed, and subsequently so did the prospect of reaching a settlement regarding the nuclear program. Yet again, the Middle East region is at a cross roads with two options: a regional war, or Iran joining the global nuclear club.

There are main developments that must be taken into account if we are to stabilize the Middle Eastern regional scene.

Israel has recently reiterated that it will do everything necessary to ensure that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, and it will continue countering extremists that jeopardise the Middle East’s stability and regional peace.

Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, meanwhile, sent the Army Commander, Major General Abdel Rahim Mousavi, a message in which the former stressed that the army must be present in the field and ready to carry out the tasks assigned to it. This coincided with the disclosure of General Yusef Qurbani that Iran has the largest helicopter fleet in the Middle East.

Saliently, Hezbollah took emergency measures to prepare for the worst, including the collapse of the Lebanese state, and the possibility of an explosion of war, including distributing supply cards, drug depots, and foodstuffs, and equipping tanks to store fuel coming from Iran.

Most of the parties in the Middle East region, if not all, are currently living in a state of anxiety and confusion, coupled with financial demise amidst the international financial crisis. The U.S is also embroiled with its own confrontations with Russia, moving back troops to Germany, processing alternatives to secure the Black Sea, and addressing its options in the South China Sea.

The rules of engagement are changing, and the map of allies in the region are changing as well. Iran might as well press ahead with its programme and utilize the international mayhem to its benefit. Negotiating a deal that the U.S. has once brokered and then tore unilaterally only taught Iran this lesson: shame on you if you fooled me once but shame on me if you fooled me twice. Is Iran willing to go to war for its programme? Only time will tell.

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