The Vienna nuclear negotiations between the six
major countries and Iran have collapsed, and subsequently so did the prospect
of reaching a settlement regarding the nuclear program. Yet again, the Middle
East region is at a cross roads with two options: a regional war, or Iran
joining the global nuclear club.
There are main developments that must be taken into account
if we are to stabilize the Middle Eastern regional scene.
Israel has recently reiterated that it will do everything
necessary to ensure that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, and it will continue
countering extremists that jeopardise the Middle East’s stability and regional
peace.
Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, meanwhile, sent
the Army Commander, Major General Abdel Rahim Mousavi, a message in which the
former stressed that the army must be present in the field and ready to carry
out the tasks assigned to it. This coincided with the disclosure of General
Yusef Qurbani that Iran has the largest helicopter fleet in the Middle East.
Saliently, Hezbollah took emergency measures to prepare for
the worst, including the collapse of the Lebanese state, and the possibility of
an explosion of war, including distributing supply cards, drug depots, and
foodstuffs, and equipping tanks to store fuel coming from Iran.
Most of the parties in the Middle East region, if not all, are
currently living in a state of anxiety and confusion, coupled with financial demise
amidst the international financial crisis. The U.S is also embroiled with its own
confrontations with Russia, moving back troops to Germany, processing
alternatives to secure the Black Sea, and addressing its options in the South
China Sea.
The rules of engagement are changing, and the map of allies
in the region are changing as well. Iran might as well press ahead with its
programme and utilize the international mayhem to its benefit. Negotiating a
deal that the U.S. has once brokered and then tore unilaterally only taught
Iran this lesson: shame on you if you fooled me once but shame on me if you
fooled me twice. Is Iran willing to go to war for its programme? Only time will tell.
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