Friday, July 23, 2021

But You Love Me

 


The great German sociologist and political economist Max Weber defined three types of legitimate authority: traditional, charismatic, and legal-rational. Whether any form exists in its purest form is questionable, as each of the types can rely on the other two for support and further legitimisation.

Such types were identified by Weber at the turn of the century, with the rapid changes that happened in the industrial and economic spheres that impacted the political scene. Questions about authority, legitimacy, and efficiency accompanied the developments that Europe was witnessing, conciliating with them the forms of governments populating across the continent and its vicinity.

In the 21 century, it is hard to believe that charismatic rule – as a source of legitimate authority – is still considered a valid source. A sole valid source. Most leaders in the Middle East beg to differ.

One example is that of the Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who announced in July 2021 that he – in his persona - will boycott Iraq’s parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2021. al-Sadr, who has millions of followers, decided unilaterally to jeopardise the stability of an unstable country by questioning the legitimacy of the future house and government.

The political stunt is not new: decrying corruption and boycotting elections were meant to make political gains, and distract the public from deeply rooted corruption that he himself has been involved in, whether directly or indirectly through the political bloc - Sayroon coalition that holds 54 of 329 seats in the parliament (the largest bloc if I may add).

Whilst it is easy to deflect blame and warn Iraqis about “..being hostage to injustice and tragedy...where Iraq’s fate may fall victim to local, regional and international policies,”, rational observers can map the ineffective and corrupt policies followed by the Sadrists themselves. A fire spread through a coronavirus ward at a hospital in the southern town of Nasiriyah due to a lack of safety measures, which resulted in about 100 deaths. Ibn al-Khatib Hospital in Baghdad also witnessed a similar incident about two months ago, resulting in more than 100 casualties. Ministries where Sadrists or their allies hold power account for between one-third and one-half of Iraq’s USD 90 billion draft budget for 2021. Electricity shortages are common, whereas over the last few weeks the southern provinces have witnessed up to 90% of electricity shortages. Why did this resignation and indignation happen at the time? Who is he blaming for the mismanagement? And how can a decision of boycotting an election solve the problem?

Sentimentalism is a dangerous business, let alone if politicised, and if politicised in a place like the Middle East. Many are the region’s leaders who exploit their public appeal and charisma as a fully-acceptable source of legitimacy and power. In this specific case, al-Sadr was a young cleric in his late 20s after the country was invaded by the U.S. in 2003. He inherited his father’s reputation and made it a point to live up to the charisma his father enjoyed – a routinisation of charismatic authority into a traditional one.  Instead of translating this charisma and popular acceptance into a political movement that is truly responsible before the people, that is efficient enough to rebuild the country, the ambitions fell short of becoming a popularity contest among an ethnically and religiously divided country.

The early elections called by Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi were one of the main demands of the anti-government protest movement that swept Iraq in October 2019. Adel Abdul Mahdi, the former Premier, resigned under pressure from tens of thousands of protesters fed up with the political establishment and Iranian influence in Iraq’s government. These elections were a chance to form a democratically elected government that responded to demands. al-Sadr decided otherwise, and made a dramatic theatrical statement that encouraged hundreds of Sadrists to gather in various cities in southern Iraq and burn their electoral cards.

There is a chance the elections could be postponed if al-Sadr does not participate, due to the small number of participants and the potential boycotting of political movements affiliated with the protesters. What that means and what it would achieve is not clear  - but at least some will sleep in a dark dark night, dreaming about dreamy al-Sadr.

Friday, July 2, 2021

Till Peace Do Us Part

 

President George Bush was famously quoted for a phrase he did not coin but one that summed up his presidency style: 'You are either with us or against us'. This logic applies in international relations, and is evident in the Middle East, were there is no place for neutrality.

Since 2014, Hamas and Israel have been building new regional alliances in an effort to balance the unbalanced. Hamas turned to wealthy Qatar for funds, Iran for weapons, and Turkey for political support. Meanwhile, and under the auspices of Donald Trump, Israel found new allies in the Arab world by signing the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. You either support Hamas, or Israel, not both. Unless you are Egypt.

Egypt was the first country in the Arab world to sign a peace deal with Israel. Its economic ties with Israel cannot be denied, and the agreement on several files that affect the interests of both countries have brought the two neighbors closer. At the same time, Egypt maintained a relationship with Hamas, allowing it some jail-free time, passage of contraband, and brokering deals when international powers decided to remain silent. Both Hamas and Israel benefit from the common friend.

However, this friendship has its own self-driven purposes. First, Egypt capitalizes on catastrophes to cement friendships. Egypt stepped in as a hero in 2014 to broker the truce that ended the Gaza war. Relations with Hamas improved in 2017, only after the Islamist group broke its ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt rose to the occasion again after it managed to broker a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the May 2021 clashes. Cairo makes sure that its role becomes ever so crucial when there is trouble in the house, jumping in as a counsellor, sometimes fair, and sometimes obviously taking sides. In the last intervention, it went a step beyond its coy role and had its Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a strongly worded statement condemning Israeli authorities after they stormed Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque and attacked locals and worshipers. The statement also called on Israel to stop any practices that violate the sanctity of the Al-Aqsa Mosque or the Islamic and Christian identity of Jerusalem. Rarely does one see a relevant, development oriented role that was not crisis-resolving-related.

Second, Egypt is well aware of the importance of maintaining its diplomatic weight in the region, and the Israeli-Hamas card is the best card to play. The regional map is constantly shifting, and the latest development of the reconciliation of the Gulf house, the wave of normalization agreements between Israel and other Arab states, and a hostile south that is pressing on with controversial water projects. In order to ensure that its role remain relevant and its voice heard by international powers, it needs to keep an upper hand in the Palestinian – Israeli saga. The May 2021 example by brokering a truce in the Gaza Strip has thrust it into the diplomatic spotlight, overshadowing all other regional attempt of mediation.

Egypt will remain pivotal in the region as long as the two sides remain at war. This way it will ensure that it will preserve its diplomatic strength that serve its interests. Israel and Hamas are grateful to share Egypt. It has indeed befriended both, but is a friend of neither.

Yesterday condemned, today embraced

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