Donald Trump announced on May 13th 2025 that he plans to lift sanctions imposed on Syria since 2004, by virtue of Executive Order 13338, upgraded in 2011 (in addition to Syria's designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism in 1979). Now that the Assad regime was toppled, Syria is being removed from the orbit of evil.
Since 2011, the Syrian government and people have been cut off from the global economy, shunned from the banking system, crippled by trade restrictions, denied investment opportunities, and condemned to isolation owing to the oligarchic regime that was inherited by the now ousted Bashar Al Assad. Any compliance officer would raise the red flag the moment a company has any ties with Syria - not the regime, not the political sphere - but Syria.
Yesterday, magically, the US realised that the Syrian baker does not actually represent global menace. SMEs do not stand for all evil. The collective punishment of the Syrian people for accepting the iron-fist rule of the Assad clan - for 45 years - does not sound reasonable anymore. Having impoverished and shut off a nation for half a century by arbitrary sanctions suddenly does not seem quite right.
Arbitrary decisions by individual leaders based on whims and visions is the sad reality of postmodern politics. Trump said that he made the decision after discussing the issue with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is unclear whether a magical potion was slipped into the Turkish coffee, or the Saudi qahwa. What is clear however is the nonsensical, contradictory, hypocritical policies followed by the US.
The last round of sanctions on Syria emerged in response to the Syrian civil war in 2011 with two main stated objectives: cessation of Syrian regime violence and introduction of political reforms. Over the course of the Syrian conflict, sanctions have evolved from targeting individuals and entities involved in regime violence towards a “de facto regime of comprehensive sanctions with an extra-territorial dimension targeting third-country individuals and entities that overlap with UN counter terrorism sanctions.”
The morality and utility of sanctions imposed on Syria have been debated by academic and policy thinkers: Landis and Simon (2020) questioned the ‘pointless cruelty’ of US sanctions, stressing their failure in achieving their declared strategic objectives while ‘immiserating’ the Syrian people. Official Syrian data shows the economy more than halved in size between 2010 and 2022. The World Bank indicated an 83% contraction between 2010 and 2024. Syria was reclassified as a low-income country in 2018, with more than 90% of its near 25 million population living below the poverty line, as per UN agencies. Syria owes between $20 billion and $23 billion, whilst dwindling oil and tourism revenues slashed Syria's exports from $18.4 billion in 2010 to $1.8 billion in 2021. Key imports were paid for with illicit cash from sales of captagon, or from fuel smuggling. Conflict and drought reduced the number of farmers, damaged irrigation and cut access to seeds and fertilizers. In short, sanctions damaged the livelihood of Syrians, who still, to this day, do not fully understand why they were blamed for the actions of a ruling elite.
Sudan has its own civil infighting, Myanmar, Libya, Yemen…the list of infighting and conflict is sadly long. And longer is the list of human rights violations, committed by allies and neighbours and households themselves. A young Syrian IT specialist would not understand why, for the past decade or so, was unable to tap into any funds. The Syrian farmer would not be able to phantom the logic behind such denial to access necessary resources. The Syrian doctor would not be able to forgive the death of her patient because sanctions prevented the repair of CT scanners owing to sanctions.
Trump came in riding his white horse, freeing the Syrian national from the shackles of US sanctions. But just as arbitrary and unilateral this generous step is, as easily it is to be reversed at the personal whims and interests of a Trump-alike. The carrot and stick method did not work - but maybe the gentle pull of the bridle would.
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