Peace for War

        Interesting was the visit of Obama to the region, or perhaps the minimized region, where important allies sat together to agree on agreeing. Most interesting about Obama’s visit were the quite coincidental peace offering initiatives: ever so proud and victimized Israel, led by a grossly arrogant Netanyahu, apologized to Turkey for the Gaza flotilla incident.  Not only was the unprecedented Israeli apology a surprise, but Erdogan’s quick acceptance and instantaneous resumption of diplomatic relations after much rhetoric also raises eyebrows. Moreover, Jordan revisiting its conscience and accepting to keep its borders open to future Syrian refugees (of course the much publicized 200 million dollar aid package had an important role in that) is also intriguing, given the country’s dire economic conditions. And lastly, the most troublesome Kurdish Labor Party leader suddenly offered an olive branch of peace from his prison cell, renouncing violence and initiating a new peaceful relationship with the Turkish government.

      Examining these acts of peace, prior and during Obama’s visit, in which he adamantly stressed US protection to the Jewish democracy of Israel and its support to its small ally in any action in takes to protect its existence, is quite worrisome. The US has long been fed up with both Syria and Iran, and the world will soon be as well, if not already. The brutalities of the Syrian regime against its people, the well-studied Israeli propaganda against a fanatic Iran and the phobiazation of the Islamic movements and rule have indeed changed world view and understanding of the geopolitics of the region and charged the delicate emotions of world viewers.  Any strike and military action against the Syrian-Iranian allies would be widely justified by the world – not that any of that matters to the US or Israel, but for economic delicacies and rise of new world powers an umbrella of legitimacy would be wiser.

     Again, Obama’s reassurance of US support to the Israeli state against any existential threat, his visit to the Israeli dome missile system upon arrival, his urging of Netanyahu to make peace with the NATO member (which is conveniently opposed to the Syrian regime and a nuclear Iran) and his generous aid package to Jordan to take in more Syrians might be a strong indication of a war that will soon strike the region. Unifying the fronts and taking all on board is an important step before any engagement with the Syrian and Iranian regimes.

      The timing could not be more perfect; the gulf countries are waiting for an excuse to get rid of the Iranian threat and Saudi Arabia’s capture of the Iranian spy network is the cherry that topped the cake. Egypt, the Arab super power, is busy with fighting the massive media campaign and local public renouncement and violence against its Islamic government. The rest of the Arab world, if not attempting to quell any uprising, is then watching in careful silence. Turkey can now see internal peace and does not have to worry about a separatist Kurdish front or betrayal should war break. Israel has regained confidence in US support.

    The politics of the region will soon change; the interview with King Abdullah with the Atlantic, in which he criticized the Muslim Brotherhood and conservative tribal leaders, should be read in the general regional context. Change will happen, but it needs a preparatory phase…a phase of justification and clarification… a phase of peace and alliance building… a phase of closing old account and opening a new page… and a phase of sudden change in positions to explain future decisions and acts.