Journalist and author of And Then All Hell Broke Loose: Two Decades in the Middle East said that “Everything changed with the First World War. The Middle East was reorganized, redefined, and the seeds were planted for a century of bloodshed.” He was not entirely right. Bloodshed lasted more than a century actually. Here we are in 2019, and the Middle East and North Africa region – the infamous MENA – is still a boisterous, rowdy zone of political recrimination, military coups, conspiracy theories, historic reminiscence, oil squabbles, and religiously-infused rhetoric. Blood shed of course as well.
Well,
here we are.
Algeria is set to head to the polls in April. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika will likely secure a fifth mandate. If not, Algeria’s powerbrokers, mainly the military and powerful business elites will enter into an expensive bargain of security versus social and economic stability. Having vested the long-enjoyed tranquillity on a political figure, rather than a system, will have a high cost, as attested by neighbouring nations.
Tunisia will
hold presidential and parliamentary elections in November 2019, while the
conflict between the Prime Minister and the President is intensifying, whereby
economic reforms and the privileges of the old authoritarian order are at odds.
Public anger at the politicians’ failure to address the economic crisis and
persistent unemployment is not promising.
The
Western Sahara conflict persists, and diplomatic tension between Morocco and Algeria
is likely to escalate.
Libya is
still embroiled in conflict, and political violence will continue to plague the
country and feed political and ideological radicalization, in a region that
really does not need further instability or polarization.
Scandinavian
tourists were murdered in Morocco in December 2018, signally that in spite of
all efforts, terrorism has its feeding grounds in the region. And is acting out.
Meanwhile,
Egyptian politics is proving its futility…the CBS “60 Minutes” cancelled interview
with the President speaks volumes of the embarrassing levels of incompetence,
and denial of human rights situation in the country.
As for
Iraq, and in the words of Tanya Goudsouzian “This will be another one of those
years of instability and uncertainty, and trying to predict with clarity what
Iraq will look like in 2019 is a fool’s errand.”
The Lebanese
cabinet formation is still in a stalemate. It has spent nearly two and a half of the past
13 years without a government, and talks to form a new one have dragged on
for over eight months. Sectarianism thank you very much.
Meanwhile,
in Jordan, veterans and political opponents are being locked up for voicing
their opinions, whilst price hikes are slowly, and passively, being accepted as
the glue that brings people together – now that all other slogans have proven to
be a coy lie.
Gazans are
under file – same old same old.
Qatar
still being treated as the estranged black sheep by its Gulf sisters, while Saudis
are under pointless international scrutiny for their human rights misconduct. Naturally,
a few arrests and a governmental reshuffles were the answer.
Syria will
celebrate US withdrawal…and Kurds will not. The opposition has forgotten whose
side they are on, and who their allies are, but they will probably come up with
something creative to add more misery. After all, it was only 14 children who perished
last night out of the cold weather conditions in the Syrian refugee camp on the
Jordan-Syria border. All under the age of 1 year. All died alone, in the cold,
in a tent, homeless, and hopeless.
Don’t wish
us a happy new year. Wish us a new MENA.
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