Slice it up already

“The fight isn't over until you win.”

― Robin Hobb, Royal Assassin

Indeed. However, in Libya, both sides believe they have won, and the fight is still not over. General Khalifa Hifter launched a military offensive against the Government of National Accord (GNA) in April 2019, employing the rhetoric of freedom and empowerment of the people against neo-imperialist interests invested in the incumbent government. Everyone understands the fallaciousness of these claims, and that the fight is only but one for the control of oil, considering that Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa. Its land has long become a battleground for proxy wars that stretch across the European, Asian and African continents, whilst the USA is observing with much weary as it sees Russian influence slowly, but surely, extending to the southern Mediterranean.

Meanwhile, the Libyans are still at war. Lives are lost, security is shattered, the economy is struggling, and the society is polarized.  

What is it that Hafter wants? And what is it that the GNA refuses to cede? The moment the GNA forces recaptured the entire city of Tripoli, oil production resumed in the Sharara oilfield in the south. When Turkey struck two major agreements with GNA in November 2019, the energy competition in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Libyan crisis entered new phases. The Libyan civil war can only be summed up as an international competition over oil reserves. Full stop. Not a war over security, or ideology, or democracy. It is about oil.

Libya’s state National Oil Corporation (NOC) recently announced that oil exports were down by 92.3 per cent since the country’s oil blockade. As a result, Libya’s cumulative losses from the current oil blockade have neared $5 billion. Such reporting is the norm when it comes to the civil war in Libya. Gains and losses are quantified, usually in oil terms. Little do we hear about the people, the environment, or the losses inflicted on the society.

International powers supporting either side are concerned for their own economic and geo-strategic interests. Whether it is to land cheap oil contracts, or allow maritime privileges, the forces backing Hafter and GNA are openly, blatantly, and sassily professing their ulterior goal.

The UN support mission in Libya said the fighting over Tripoli "has proven, beyond any doubt, that any war among Libyans is a losing war." It urged both sides to "engage swiftly and constructively" in UN-brokered talks aimed at reaching a lasting cease-fire agreement. How will that be possible if it is in no one’s interest to allow national conciliation?

The way things are going, it seems that only two solutions are possible: splitting the country in the middle, with Hafter controlling one part and the GNA the other, and subsequently slicing both parts up like one of these pizzas in which each slice has a different topping (analogy evident here). I was wrong; there is no second solution.