Send in the Clowns

Iran asked the Interpol to arrest Donald Trump at the backdrop of assassinating its top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2002, insisting that he and his aides should face "murder and terrorism charges”.

Clearly, the Interpol burst into laughter.

Now Iran knew that its ridiculous request will be snubbed, but it pressed on with it nonetheless. The timing is perfect. As the USA is struggling with the corona-virus pandemic, dire economic conditions, and a national revolt over the murder of an African American is an act of pure racism, topped with recent news about Donald Trump’s prior knowledge of Russia’s paid hitmen to eliminate US fighters in Afghanistan, Trump is not in his strongest presidency moments. A news article that calls for arresting a president by the top international enforcement authority – albeit being purely a political stunt - will not fall on deaf US ears.

Trump’s bet that over 18 months of maximum pressure sanctions will make Iran crack was a miss. It is true that the oil sector has suffered from these sanctions, and hence the oil gifts sent to Venezuela, but other sectors are not suffering. They are in good conditions actually.  Data from the Statistical Center of Iran revealed that Iran’s manufacturing sector had returned to growth, expanding by 2.4% in the second quarter of 2019. The manufacturing sector, which employs just under one-third of Iran’s workforce of around 24 million people, has also helped keep Iran integrated into the global economy, even as sanctions isolated Iran from global oil markets.

Iran earned around USD 41 billion in non-oil export revenue from March 2019 to March 2020. The non-oil export revenue has bought time for Iranian policymakers to engineer a revamping of the country’s budgets and general economic structure to minimise dependence on oil revenue – a long-stated goal. The world is gearing towards green energy, and Iran is riding that tide. 

Meanwhile, Iran is also making full use of the regional mayhem to further pressure the US on the Lebanese and Syrian files, whilst watching – with much pleasure – how the Gulf economies are shrinking, and how Egypt is fighting neighbours to the west and the south.

In the end, the Trump administration underestimated the shrewdness of Tehran and its ability to reinvent itself and its discourse. If what it takes to rattle Trump is to play a joke on Interpol, then by all means, send in the clowns.