Darling, We Need to Talk

Darling, we need to talk. Never a good sign, but at least it paves the way for an amicable, quasi-consensual agreement to part ways or to solve differences. Why can’t this approach be applied in politics?

Iran – AKA the root of all evil and malice according to a certain camp in the Middle East the Western world – has been fighting a proxy war in Yemen throughout the past decade or so. The alleged ultimate goal of Iranian intervention in Yemen and other neighbouring Arab states is to bolster Iranian hegemony in the region, and the easiest route to follow is to employ agents that abide by the same theological and ideological beliefs. The most sensible course encountered to fend off such expansionism is the coalescence of like-minded regimes that share common self-serving interests and the subsequent employment of religious rhetoric and exaggerated security threats.  

Since 2015, the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen attempted – with the aide of loyal partners – to fight the Yemeni war on behalf of the Yemenis, or part of them. The supreme goal has been to defend the internationally recognised president of Yemen, Abd-Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, after his ousting by the Houthi movement. Albeit the ridiculously large number of partner countries that have partaken in the liberation fight, and the logistical, intelligence and material support provided by western nations, Yemen’s situation has not the least improved. In fact, Houthis have only been bolstered, their aerial attacks on Saudi targets have improved, and the Yemeni people have mastered the art of unjust and silent death. A catastrophe by all means is taking place before the world’s eyes, and for no good reason at all.

Fast forwarding four years ahead. In August 2019 two important things happen. The closest Saudi alley in the holy war in Yemen, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), initiated the withdrawal of its forces a few months earlier and – in a theatrical stunt – shifted sides and supported the separatist Southern Transitional Council fighting for control of the key southern city of Aden and its surrounding areas (Aden has been the temporary seat of Hadi's government since the Houthis seized Yemen's capital, Sanaa, in 2015). Not to be outdone, the USA also arranged for secret talks with Houthis in an attempt to reach an amicable agreement and end the war in what is left of the country. Both the UAE and the USA are trying to find a face-saving route to appease Iran and re-open dialogue – each for its own benefit.

What the UAE is trying to do is probably show off its political acumen and its sensible policies compared to its Saudi patron, mainly by trying to put an end to a seemingly endless war and to kill the groundless support to a president who just won’t nudge. The USA seems to be reversing its policies and reminiscing about the sensible Obama era.

The USA has proven repeatedly that it will not enter into a fully-fledged war with Iran. When rockets hit its Saudi ally it remained silent…when its surveillance air jet was shot down it remained silent…when the Iranian shipment of gas sailed freely and defied US orders for a seizure in the Mediterranean it also remained silent. No one has the time or stomach for war, especially with Iran. 

Meanwhile, the UAE –the Emirate of Dubai to be specific– received the message loud and clear. If you don’t back off, your ivory tower will crumble down. Too many Iranian investments and business deals are at stake, and the economy always, always, trumps political correctness. The UAE – fearing backlash and economic woos – decided to turn tables and seek a one-sided and sudden divorce from the coalition. So did the USA, albeit more discreetly.

Where does that leave everyone? It leaves them in the: let’s sit and talk dear phase.

Why has it taken leaders four years, hundreds of thousands of lives, millions of dollars, and endless heartbreaks to reach that decision is beyond comprehension.

Sadly, the Machiavellian theory still stands true. If you want to annihilate your enemy, make sure you kill him. If you can’t kill him – in my opinion – and you can't kill this one, then just talk to him. If that applies to your enemy, then it certainly should apply to your partner, no Abu Dhabi?