Notions

Journalist and author of A nd Then All Hell Broke Loose: Two Decades in the Middle East   said that “Everything changed with the First World War. The Middle East was reorganized, redefined, and the seeds were planted for a century of bloodshed.” He was not entirely right. Bloodshed lasted more than a century actually. Here we are in 2019, and the Middle East and North Africa region – the infamous MENA – is still a boisterous, rowdy zone of political recrimination, military coups, conspiracy theories, historic reminiscence, oil squabbles, and religiously-infused rhetoric. Blood shed of course as well. Well, here we are.  Algeria is set to head to the polls in April. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika will likely secure a fifth mandate. If not, Algeria’s powerbrokers, mainly the military and powerful business elites will enter into an expensive bargain of security versus social and economic stability. Having vested the long-enjoyed tranquillity on a political figure,...

It is very similar to an old, abandoned, shaky building. The case of Spain that is. Its different storeys and multiple apartments from within have no option other than to endure the troubles caused – purposefully or passively – by other tenants. Those on the lower floors are luckier, as they can avoid fifth floor drama by isolation and compartmentalization of their existence. Those on the fifth floor are also lucky in that they can blame all mishaps and malfunctioning on the basement, and its tenants. It would be physically impossible to pull an apartment out and relocate, but it is quite possible and common to create alliances and parallel systems to manage the unmanageable co-existence. And that is what is happening in Spain. The Catalan region decided to address its financial problems by blaming central mismanagement and southern hedonism. They have and still are demanding a divorce from the Peninsula, with amicable terms with the remaining neighbours. Meanwhile, the...

Jean Blondel went into details in Political Parties – The Decline of Parties in Europe – about the perils of patronage in particracies . The exchange of favours and appointments in governmental bodies owing to party calculations and favour exchanges has proven ineffective and non-transparent, whether in majoritarian systems or those of a consensual nature. The mistakes committed by parties in continental Europe throughout the past century have been taken account of, with the hope that as party life develops and new organisational structures emerge, citizens can be spared the inefficiency of their elected governments. What is being exported into the new member countries of the democratic club seems to miss out on these lessons. Theory trumps practicality and experience in the process of introducing democratic systems of governance in these countries. Iraq stands testimony to this very observation. Iraq was ruled for very long years by an Arab-nationalist party that employed...

The Trump administration is pursuing a regional security alliance comprised of Egypt, Jordan, and six Gulf Arab states, dubbed as the “Arab NATO.” The organisation will presumably support US efforts in containing and rolling back Iranian influence in the Middle East. To use US jargon: to safeguard against Iranian aggression, terrorism, extremism, totalitarianism and any other isms that come to mind. Tired and broke after a series of military interventions in this sad, troubled region, the Trump administration hopes that the Arab NATO would step in and do the work themselves.   The White House wants to see deeper cooperation between the countries on missile defence, military training, counter-terrorism and other issues such as strengthening regional economic and diplomatic ties. However, the main target is to curb Shiite Iran, by these Sunni partners. The proposal screams failure on many levels, but two dimensions must be explored in this respect:   technical glitches...

The US administration has never shied away from depicting the Iranian regime in the worst and most diabolic forms of governments. Slurs such as the axis of evil, a terrorist-harbouring state, and a deranged theocracy are some of the synonyms of the Ayatollah regime in Iran. Most recently, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a speech in which he accused the Iranian regime of being a corrupt Kleptocracy, insinuating that the overthrow of such a corrupt system was a common dream of Americans and Iranian friends. Not to be outdone,   Donald Trump issued a dramatic tweet in all caps and with the signature exclamation remark at the end: "NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS! " These intelligent words came after Iran's foreign minister’s meeti...

     Donald Trump ’s agenda was - surprisingly – clear when he met with Vladimir Putin during the July 16 summit in Helsinki. Trump’s wish-list included maintaining the gains made against the Islamic State, constraining Iranian influence in Syria, and gradually pulling out all military presence from the country. It does not really matter who stays in power, as long as the Islamic State in the eastern part of the country has been defeated, and Iran’s influence in Damascus is reined by Russia. It is a question of time before Assad gains control over the entire country – eastern side in particular – and the Syrian Democratic Forces will no longer be recognised as the authority on the ground, including by its US patron. What is left for the US to save face is to appear to have minimised Iran's role in Syria. The Trump administration clearly wants to kick Iran out of Syria. Russia is neither crazy about Iranian growing influence and power in Syria.   A compromis...

An article posted in Al Monitor describes the growing tensions between Israel and Turkey over the latter’s activities in Jerusalem Haram Al-Sharif /Temple Mount. Whether it is the rising funds directed to non-profit associations , primarily the Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency, the soaring number of tourists flocking into Jerusalem, or the opening of a series of Turkish shawarma places, Tel Aviv is concerned with Istanbul’s hidden agendas. One concern however seems to stick out - again as reported on the aforementioned article: ´ The Israelis are convinced that Erdogan is trying to return Ottoman grandeur to the Temple Mount to intensify tension between Jews and Muslims in the holy places and become the top Islamic figure to protect the mosques and Al-Aqsa. “We won’t let this happen, no way,” an Israeli security source said on condition of anonymity ’. Now, what does this anonymous Israeli security official mean with return Ottoman grandeur to the Temple Mou...