Shame on me if you fool me twice

 

The Vienna nuclear negotiations between the six major countries and Iran have collapsed, and subsequently so did the prospect of reaching a settlement regarding the nuclear program. Yet again, the Middle East region is at a cross roads with two options: a regional war, or Iran joining the global nuclear club.

There are main developments that must be taken into account if we are to stabilize the Middle Eastern regional scene.

Israel has recently reiterated that it will do everything necessary to ensure that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, and it will continue countering extremists that jeopardise the Middle East’s stability and regional peace.

Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, meanwhile, sent the Army Commander, Major General Abdel Rahim Mousavi, a message in which the former stressed that the army must be present in the field and ready to carry out the tasks assigned to it. This coincided with the disclosure of General Yusef Qurbani that Iran has the largest helicopter fleet in the Middle East.

Saliently, Hezbollah took emergency measures to prepare for the worst, including the collapse of the Lebanese state, and the possibility of an explosion of war, including distributing supply cards, drug depots, and foodstuffs, and equipping tanks to store fuel coming from Iran.

Most of the parties in the Middle East region, if not all, are currently living in a state of anxiety and confusion, coupled with financial demise amidst the international financial crisis. The U.S is also embroiled with its own confrontations with Russia, moving back troops to Germany, processing alternatives to secure the Black Sea, and addressing its options in the South China Sea.

The rules of engagement are changing, and the map of allies in the region are changing as well. Iran might as well press ahead with its programme and utilize the international mayhem to its benefit. Negotiating a deal that the U.S. has once brokered and then tore unilaterally only taught Iran this lesson: shame on you if you fooled me once but shame on me if you fooled me twice. Is Iran willing to go to war for its programme? Only time will tell. 

Only the Weak

US President Donald Trump yet again employed his mediocre showmanship skills in his infection – or lack thereof-with the Corona virus. The issue of whether this was a publicity stunt or a reality is debatable, but what is not is the underlying message that is being sent: welfare states are for the weak.

In the first scenario of this whole charade, Trump might have actually caught the virus. He stayed in the hospital for less than four days, during which he claimed that he was carrying out his duties as president. In addition to the sympathy gained among voters, and the glorification of his image as a hero who defeated this dreaded virus, his message was clear: the virus not deadly, do not close down businesses, do not fund the health system, and do not reinforce any of the pillars of a welfare state that provides and cares for its citizens. He craftily failed to mention that the virus does not affect everyone in the same intensity, and that being a billionaire in office with entire hospital facilities and medical teams at his service, as well as assistants to support his family and run his business whilst away contributed to his rapid healing.

In the second scenario, he lied about the virus to gain support and to fool the public into believing that the corona measures are excessive. Again, with this scenario, the welfare state is ridiculed.

The US and the rest of the world have inadvertently faced an incredibly important question amidst the Corona virus lock-down and the mayhem it brought with it. The question concerns the form of governments that are best equipped to deal with a catastrophe. When faced with hardships, which course of action should we choose? Is it survival for the fittest? Is a social response based on shared responsibility? Should the working class subject itself to threats of a looming viral infection whilst the capitalist class remain protected behind disinfected glass? Should the centre reign and the periphery abide?

Opportunists such as Trump seize any opportunity to push their agenda and influence public opinion. In this case, the welfare state with all the disadvantages it has on the wealthy class came under direct attack by a system that equates equality with weakness, and support with defeat. It feeds primitive urges of believing in the survival of fittest, whilst dithering before the helplessness of the weaker. The real threat that this virus is posing is not its infection of our bodies, but of our morals. If the slightest sense of victory is sensed by the healthy, blessed, or rich, then the opportunists have indeed won.

Piece or Peace?

A peace deal is an agreement between nations to stop fighting. Commercial, cultural, economic, and physical types of war should see an end after inking such a deal. In short: stop fighting.

Therefore, one would be confused to hear that the UAE and Israel have normalised relations and are on the road to signing a peace deal. Were the relations strained? Were the two countries fighting? What peace deal are they talking about?

The UAE and Israel have long been cooperating in the realms of business and research. Since the 9/11 attacks, Dubai in particular has been adamant about saving face and improving its cyber-security. A regional partner that is worthy of such cooperation is certainly not Yemen or any regional country engulfed in its own internal crises and commitment to its reputation as the third world. No. Israel proved to be a reliable partner than can deliver.  The cooperation has since grown, with investments taking place and companies established in the business hubs of the rich Emirates. Diplomatic missions followed suit, and relations prospered and flourished.

The latest chapter of neighbourly cooperation was the COVID-19 vaccine research partnership that saw the two nations joining in hands – in public - for the larger good.  Notwithstanding Israel’s demolishment of Palestinian testing centres, medical facilities, and residential houses amidst the international health crisis, and the ongoing starvation of Gazans – these two nations have been praised for trying to save the humanity from the virus.

No one was attacking the UAE for such partnership. It was free to do as it wishes and enter into as many alliances as deemed appropriate, which is the right of any sovereign country. Abu Dhabi has insisted that it has the full right for self-determination and national decision making – forgetting however how it is meddling in Yemen, Libya, and Sudan. So why is it that the UAE decided to formalise the relations? The unholy matrimony was fine; why complicate things and stir Arab sentiments?

 The UAE claimed that this decision will help Palestinians. It will thwart – albeit temporarily- Israel’s decision to annex parts of the West Bank. In other words, the public announcement of “truce” and “normalisation” is a sacrifice made by the Emirates towards fellow Palestinians, whereby this sign of good faith has successfully halted – again temporarily – the brazen, unethical annexation. Both UAE’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Israel’s Premier reminded the world that the annexation will stop for now. This translates to:

1.       We know the annexation is wrong. If it were right we would have gone through with it anyhow.

2.       We are penalising Palestinians for the decision of Arab countries not to normalise relations with Tel Aviv. The penalty is annexation.

3.       The peace deal drawn is 2002 is void, as the condition of normalising relations only if two states are formed was a bluff.

4.       We think people are idiots and cannot see that the whole point is to support upcoming elections in both the USA and Israel, and market the UAE as an international hub of commerce and technology, or/and a regional player in peaceful mediation that employs culture and business as a road for peace (a much needed approach in all honesty).

Had the UAE simply been honest about why its peaceful relations with Israel would bring benefits to itself and perhaps the region as a whole the injury of the ever-so-indignant Arab community would have been easier to swallow than the accompanying insult. Expecting the gratitude of the Palestinian community for freezing the annexation is an act of shameless absurdity. Ink as many deals as you wish – but please leave the Palestinians out of it.

Send in the Clowns

Iran asked the Interpol to arrest Donald Trump at the backdrop of assassinating its top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2002, insisting that he and his aides should face "murder and terrorism charges”.

Clearly, the Interpol burst into laughter.

Now Iran knew that its ridiculous request will be snubbed, but it pressed on with it nonetheless. The timing is perfect. As the USA is struggling with the corona-virus pandemic, dire economic conditions, and a national revolt over the murder of an African American is an act of pure racism, topped with recent news about Donald Trump’s prior knowledge of Russia’s paid hitmen to eliminate US fighters in Afghanistan, Trump is not in his strongest presidency moments. A news article that calls for arresting a president by the top international enforcement authority – albeit being purely a political stunt - will not fall on deaf US ears.

Trump’s bet that over 18 months of maximum pressure sanctions will make Iran crack was a miss. It is true that the oil sector has suffered from these sanctions, and hence the oil gifts sent to Venezuela, but other sectors are not suffering. They are in good conditions actually.  Data from the Statistical Center of Iran revealed that Iran’s manufacturing sector had returned to growth, expanding by 2.4% in the second quarter of 2019. The manufacturing sector, which employs just under one-third of Iran’s workforce of around 24 million people, has also helped keep Iran integrated into the global economy, even as sanctions isolated Iran from global oil markets.

Iran earned around USD 41 billion in non-oil export revenue from March 2019 to March 2020. The non-oil export revenue has bought time for Iranian policymakers to engineer a revamping of the country’s budgets and general economic structure to minimise dependence on oil revenue – a long-stated goal. The world is gearing towards green energy, and Iran is riding that tide. 

Meanwhile, Iran is also making full use of the regional mayhem to further pressure the US on the Lebanese and Syrian files, whilst watching – with much pleasure – how the Gulf economies are shrinking, and how Egypt is fighting neighbours to the west and the south.

In the end, the Trump administration underestimated the shrewdness of Tehran and its ability to reinvent itself and its discourse. If what it takes to rattle Trump is to play a joke on Interpol, then by all means, send in the clowns.

Slice it up already

“The fight isn't over until you win.”

― Robin Hobb, Royal Assassin

Indeed. However, in Libya, both sides believe they have won, and the fight is still not over. General Khalifa Hifter launched a military offensive against the Government of National Accord (GNA) in April 2019, employing the rhetoric of freedom and empowerment of the people against neo-imperialist interests invested in the incumbent government. Everyone understands the fallaciousness of these claims, and that the fight is only but one for the control of oil, considering that Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa. Its land has long become a battleground for proxy wars that stretch across the European, Asian and African continents, whilst the USA is observing with much weary as it sees Russian influence slowly, but surely, extending to the southern Mediterranean.

Meanwhile, the Libyans are still at war. Lives are lost, security is shattered, the economy is struggling, and the society is polarized.  

What is it that Hafter wants? And what is it that the GNA refuses to cede? The moment the GNA forces recaptured the entire city of Tripoli, oil production resumed in the Sharara oilfield in the south. When Turkey struck two major agreements with GNA in November 2019, the energy competition in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Libyan crisis entered new phases. The Libyan civil war can only be summed up as an international competition over oil reserves. Full stop. Not a war over security, or ideology, or democracy. It is about oil.

Libya’s state National Oil Corporation (NOC) recently announced that oil exports were down by 92.3 per cent since the country’s oil blockade. As a result, Libya’s cumulative losses from the current oil blockade have neared $5 billion. Such reporting is the norm when it comes to the civil war in Libya. Gains and losses are quantified, usually in oil terms. Little do we hear about the people, the environment, or the losses inflicted on the society.

International powers supporting either side are concerned for their own economic and geo-strategic interests. Whether it is to land cheap oil contracts, or allow maritime privileges, the forces backing Hafter and GNA are openly, blatantly, and sassily professing their ulterior goal.

The UN support mission in Libya said the fighting over Tripoli "has proven, beyond any doubt, that any war among Libyans is a losing war." It urged both sides to "engage swiftly and constructively" in UN-brokered talks aimed at reaching a lasting cease-fire agreement. How will that be possible if it is in no one’s interest to allow national conciliation?

The way things are going, it seems that only two solutions are possible: splitting the country in the middle, with Hafter controlling one part and the GNA the other, and subsequently slicing both parts up like one of these pizzas in which each slice has a different topping (analogy evident here). I was wrong; there is no second solution.

Comedian Bringing Down the Clown

Who would have believed that a comedian would govern an extremely strategic country that lies at the heart of Russian versus power struggle? Or that a bawdy, brainless, boorish man would run the strongest and most influential country in the world? Now, for the comedian to be the reason behind ending the clown’s tenure would be the joke of the decade.

On 4 October, Ukraine’s general prosecutor’s office announced that it will review past investigations into the owner of Burisma - a gas company linked to former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter-, raising the possibility of reopening the probes as per President Trump’s instructions.

Donald Trump had insisted repeatedly that his invitation to Ukraine to re-launch investigations had nothing to do with his political aspirations or cheap strategies to bring down an opponent, but rather a commitment to fight corruption committed by US nationals. Irrespective of whether an indictment would emerge, the investigations themselves are mired by unreliability and bias from the outset. If the Bidens were indicted, the entire world would support claims that Trump’s pressure was behind this. If they were declared innocent, the entire world would believe that the entire investigation was a farce that was launched to appease the US President. The only bet Trump has in this matter is that enough media controversy would be stirred that voters would subconsciously associate Biden with corruption – irrespective of the actual facts. This would certainly help the President in his re-election, or would it?

Even if the President were not impeached, and appeared victorious over Democratic villains, the average person would definitely ask the question of whether the Ukrainian President played the US President. In light of the heightened and tensed emotions, and the insistence of the US president that he did not pressure Ukraine to re-launch investigations, a smart and wise decision to help a ‘US friend’ would be to wait it out, let the media calm down, and launch investigations in silence. Instead, and in a very funny joke, the Ukrainian President escalated the issue, proving to the world that he was ‘pressured’ whilst also claiming his country’s right to purchase military equipment as promised in this ‘not-really-a-deal’. And oh yes, he would also look like a champion fighting financial crime. The US public would not take a liking to this, and would certainly reconsider voting for a President who was unable to manage a simple act of extortion.

It would be a very nice twist of fate if Ukraine were the reason to the ending of Trump. Perhaps we need more comedians in power to bring the world justice, with a nice heartfelt laugh.

Darling, We Need to Talk

Darling, we need to talk. Never a good sign, but at least it paves the way for an amicable, quasi-consensual agreement to part ways or to solve differences. Why can’t this approach be applied in politics?

Iran – AKA the root of all evil and malice according to a certain camp in the Middle East the Western world – has been fighting a proxy war in Yemen throughout the past decade or so. The alleged ultimate goal of Iranian intervention in Yemen and other neighbouring Arab states is to bolster Iranian hegemony in the region, and the easiest route to follow is to employ agents that abide by the same theological and ideological beliefs. The most sensible course encountered to fend off such expansionism is the coalescence of like-minded regimes that share common self-serving interests and the subsequent employment of religious rhetoric and exaggerated security threats.  

Since 2015, the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen attempted – with the aide of loyal partners – to fight the Yemeni war on behalf of the Yemenis, or part of them. The supreme goal has been to defend the internationally recognised president of Yemen, Abd-Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, after his ousting by the Houthi movement. Albeit the ridiculously large number of partner countries that have partaken in the liberation fight, and the logistical, intelligence and material support provided by western nations, Yemen’s situation has not the least improved. In fact, Houthis have only been bolstered, their aerial attacks on Saudi targets have improved, and the Yemeni people have mastered the art of unjust and silent death. A catastrophe by all means is taking place before the world’s eyes, and for no good reason at all.

Fast forwarding four years ahead. In August 2019 two important things happen. The closest Saudi alley in the holy war in Yemen, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), initiated the withdrawal of its forces a few months earlier and – in a theatrical stunt – shifted sides and supported the separatist Southern Transitional Council fighting for control of the key southern city of Aden and its surrounding areas (Aden has been the temporary seat of Hadi's government since the Houthis seized Yemen's capital, Sanaa, in 2015). Not to be outdone, the USA also arranged for secret talks with Houthis in an attempt to reach an amicable agreement and end the war in what is left of the country. Both the UAE and the USA are trying to find a face-saving route to appease Iran and re-open dialogue – each for its own benefit.

What the UAE is trying to do is probably show off its political acumen and its sensible policies compared to its Saudi patron, mainly by trying to put an end to a seemingly endless war and to kill the groundless support to a president who just won’t nudge. The USA seems to be reversing its policies and reminiscing about the sensible Obama era.

The USA has proven repeatedly that it will not enter into a fully-fledged war with Iran. When rockets hit its Saudi ally it remained silent…when its surveillance air jet was shot down it remained silent…when the Iranian shipment of gas sailed freely and defied US orders for a seizure in the Mediterranean it also remained silent. No one has the time or stomach for war, especially with Iran. 

Meanwhile, the UAE –the Emirate of Dubai to be specific– received the message loud and clear. If you don’t back off, your ivory tower will crumble down. Too many Iranian investments and business deals are at stake, and the economy always, always, trumps political correctness. The UAE – fearing backlash and economic woos – decided to turn tables and seek a one-sided and sudden divorce from the coalition. So did the USA, albeit more discreetly.

Where does that leave everyone? It leaves them in the: let’s sit and talk dear phase.

Why has it taken leaders four years, hundreds of thousands of lives, millions of dollars, and endless heartbreaks to reach that decision is beyond comprehension.

Sadly, the Machiavellian theory still stands true. If you want to annihilate your enemy, make sure you kill him. If you can’t kill him – in my opinion – and you can't kill this one, then just talk to him. If that applies to your enemy, then it certainly should apply to your partner, no Abu Dhabi?